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Based on newly collected data on 37 economies over the last decades, we define credit booms and busts. We explore the changing composition of bank credit (the ratio of household mortgage credit to total credit) over the credit cycle, and its impact on boom-bust sequences. We find that the increase in the share of mortgages in total credit is significantly associated with the probability both of credit booms and of credit booms ‘going bad’, leading to subsequent credit growth contractions. We discuss policy implications. (Joint with Lu Zhang)

Detail Summary
Date 18 February 2015
Time 16:00 -17:30
Room Venue: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam - Room 1.60

For more information please contact: Marco van der Leij or Isabelle Salle.